Title Run
La Liga title odds
Simulation updated 1 Nov 2026, 06:51 UTC · matchday 11
- FavoriteBarça48.17% to win the league
- Title gap21.24%Lead over 2nd in title probability
- Madrid#226.94% · 81.8 pts proj.
- Field avg52.7Projected points across all clubs
Title race
Favorite
#1Barça
Title probability 48.17%
84.9 pts avg · 56–108 range · Elo 1700
Challenger
#2Real Madrid
Title probability 26.94%
81.8 pts avg · 51–106 range · Elo 1667
Contender
#3Atleti
Title probability 20.81%
80.3 pts avg · 51–104 range · Elo 1637
Model charts
Gold = Real Madrid · navy = rest of the field
Title probability
Top clubs by Monte Carlo title share
xG vs xGA
Attacking output vs chances conceded (per game)
Projected points band
Simulation min–max range for title contenders
Next 5
Showing next 5 fixtures for Real Madrid CF.
Home fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18away
Celta
xG 1.37xGA 1.48Home fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18away
Alavés
xG 1.41xGA 1.39Away fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Sociedad
xG 1.57xGA 1.59away
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18Away fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Athletic
xG 1.46xGA 1.24away
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18Home fixture for Real Madrid CF
home
Real Madrid
xG 2.14xGA 1.18away
Osasuna
xG 1.35xGA 1.36
Full projections
Gold edge = title race · navy edge = Europe chase
20 clubs ranked
| Rank | Club | Title % | Probability | Projected points | xG | xGA | Points band | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Barça | Barça FC Barcelona | 48.17% | 84.956–108 | 2.62 | 1.33 | 1700 | ||
